The robots would take our jobs – or so we were told over a decade ago. The same warnings are heard usually today concerning the likely impact of artificial intelligence (AI).
Technological breakthroughs have long fueled fears that jobs will probably be eliminated by automation, with generative AI platforms like ChatGPT sparking the most recent round of profession anxiety.
We often see the fear of AI replacing our livelihoods News article Reporting on recent worker survey results or in online forums where AI is discussed.”Workplace massacre“.
An analogous gloom has prevailed in previous research speculating concerning the future effects of automation and an impending robot apocalypse.
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne conduct research at Oxford University warned In 2013, 47% of U.S. jobs were at high risk of automation “perhaps in a decade or two.”
Soon after, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research appreciated Around 50% of New Zealand's jobs may be in danger.
The media amplified such warnings alarming headlines like “You’re going to lose your job to a robot – prior to you’re thinking that.”
In 2017 Nobel Prize winners Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo provided the primary concrete evidence that robots had begun to displace jobs and drive down wages within the US economy.
Their findings sparked a worldwide wave of research as tons of of scientists began analyzing various data sets searching for further evidence.
The robo-revolution that didn't exist
More than a decade after these forecasts first appeared, was the gloom ever justified? Has this threat to our jobs and wages actually had an impact?
To answer these questions, my colleagues and I conducted one Meta-analysis Summary of results from dozens of scientific papers published since Acemoglu and Restrepo's groundbreaking 2017 study.
Rather than counting on a single data set, country or time period, we reviewed 52 studies from world wide, covering a complete of two,586 individual estimates of how robots and automation affect wages.
Across the 52 studies examined, we found no clear evidence that robots have a consistent impact on wages – either positive or negative.
Some studies reported wage declines, others found wage increases, but on average the effect was near zero. In fact, the estimated overall impacts were so small that they even fell below the minimum economic significance threshold.
While robots can influence wages in certain industries and countries or amongst certain groups of employees, we now have found little evidence globally to support the concept automation consistently drives wages up or down.
A previous one led by the University of Canterbury Meta-analysis found similar results when examining the impact of robots on employment.
While those initial findings from Acemoglu and Restrepo showed that robots reduced employment, much of the research since then has failed to point out an overall negative impact.
Two additional meta-analyses conducted by researchers in Italy And Germanyalso provided little conclusive evidence of widespread, robotic cuts in jobs and wages.
Focus on opportunities, not fears
Despite these findings, we still cannot say that there have been no losers – or winners – from increasing automation.
In fact, there are some varieties of jobs for instance, those performing routine cognitive or physical taskshave turn out to be less vital resulting from robots, while others, comparable to people who require creativityhave turn out to be increasingly vital.
Our research suggests that upskilling and learning to collaborate effectively with robots – and AI – is the correct technique to remain competitive in today's labor markets.
Business owners and managers also needs to deal with adapting to and benefiting from the brand new opportunities presented by automation.
Ultimately, technology is driving the demise of 1 company after one other.
Finally, our research calls for policymakers to maneuver away from panic-driven regulation geared toward slowing automation and toward supporting employees in acquiring the human skills that may turn out to be more helpful through automation.
