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The North American power grid faces “critical reliability challenges” as power generation fails to maintain up with rising demand driven by artificial intelligence, the industry regulator has warned.
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation has found that rising electricity consumption over the subsequent decade, combined with the closure of coal-fired power plants, will put enormous strain on grids within the United States and Canada.
The shortage could lead on to power outages during peak demand periods in each countries and shall be made worse by delays within the delivery of solar energy generation capability, batteries and hybrid resources to the grid, in line with NERC.
Some areas of the U.S. could see deficits as early as next 12 months, it says in its 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment report.
“We are experiencing a time of profound change,” said John Moura, director of reliability assessment at NERC. “We are seeing demand growth like we now have not seen in many years.” . . And what we’re seeing is that the pace is just accelerating.”
The report is the newest warning that AI's insatiable energy demands threaten to overwhelm an already fragile power grid because it struggles to maintain up with the energy transition.
NERC found that electricity demand grew faster than at any time up to now 20 years as data centers for AI and crypto mining were quickly built and consumers bought electric vehicles and warmth pumps.
Peak summer demand would rise by 132 gigawatts, or 15 percent, over the subsequent decade – a major increase from last 12 months's forecast of 80 GW. Peak winter demand will rise by 149 GW, or 18 percent, from 92 GW previously, NERC said.
NERC is a nonprofit entity regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
The International Energy Agency estimates that global electricity demand from data centers alone could exceed 1,000 terawatt hours by 2026 – double the 2022 level and a rise reminiscent of Germany's entire electricity demand.
Big tech firms are scrambling to seek out ways to fulfill huge demand forecasts, announcing a flurry of recent deals which have proven a boon for nuclear power generation.
However, NERC warned that the rise in demand would coincide with the phasing out of fossil fuel generation, with 115 GW price of capability set to retire over the subsequent decade.
The shortage could cause the provision buffer to fall below required levels in just about all jurisdictions over the last decade, NERC warned. The Midcontinent System Operator, which is answerable for the network within the Midwest of the USA, is facing possible bottlenecks as early as next 12 months.
“Most of North America (bulk power grids) faces increasing resource adequacy challenges over the subsequent decade as demand continues to grow strongly and thermal generators announce retirement plans,” NERC said.
