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Higher earners akin to software developers and data scientists are more exposed to the impacts of artificial intelligence than low earners, in keeping with the newest research on technology and the labor market.
Nearly a fifth of staff would have not less than half of their jobs potentially impacted by advances in machine learning, in keeping with an evaluation of greater than 900 occupations. published in Science on Thursday.
The paper underscores uncertainty in regards to the impact of AI on the labor market. The IMF this week expressed “deep concern” that generative AI could fuel inequality and disrupt work, including in high-skilled industries.
“Exposure (to AI) may be good or bad for staff,” said Daniel Rock, co-author of the paper and assistant professor of operations, information and decision-making on the University of Pennsylvania.
“At this point, it is vitally difficult for us to predict the long-term impact on labor demand,” he added. “But measuring exposure tells us where to search for potential changes.”
Rock and his fellow authors from ChatGPT maker OpenAI and the Centre for the Governance of AI, a British non-profit organisation, examined 923 occupations from a database of labor and worker characteristics.
They used humans and a trained GPT-4 model for big languages to research whether the rapidly evolving technology could cut the time it takes a human to finish a task by not less than half without compromising quality.
They concluded that 18.5 percent of staff worked in jobs where 50 percent or more of their duties were disclosed in this fashion, with the main focus being on higher-paying jobs.
The occupations most affected were blockchain engineers, clinical data managers, public relations specialists and quantitative financial analysts. Occupations without exposed activities included motorcycle mechanics, pile drivers and stonemasons.
“Knowledge staff process information, and it's protected to assume that these large language models will greatly increase our ability to process information in other ways,” Rock said.
The study confirms similar findings from other areas. According to a UK government study on the impact of AI on the job market published in November, finance professionals within the City of London can be most affected by AI applications akin to image recognition, language modeling, translation and speech recognition.
The Science article is a big addition since it estimates the extent of AI's impact on various professions, said Sarah Bana, assistant professor of management science at Chapman University.
The research suggests that technology is more likely to have different impacts than computerization, which primarily affects lower-paying jobs involving routine cognitive tasks.
“As the authors note, lots still must occur for these estimates to materialize, but it surely suggests that this can have very profound implications for the way in which we do what we do,” said Bana, who was not involved on this research but works with Rock on other projects.
While the study provides an “interesting overview of hypothetical future scenarios,” it also shows that more research is required into the “needs and concerns” of employees, says Mhairi Aitken, ethics researcher on the British Alan Turing Institute.
“It is critical that studies like this are complemented by insights into actual experiences with AI,” Aitken said.
