An incorrect report by Goldman Sachs analyst Peter Oppenheimer could possibly be the explanation for the significantly negative sentiment towards AI stocks in recent days.
There have been rumors of a possible AI bubble as technology prices proceed to rise, and Oppenheimer's reports suggested that the tide would soon turn. Oppenheimer's report relied on a chart that looked as if it would indicate that the variety of users of OpenAI's ChatGPT was declining.
Here is the graph that made Oppenheimer consider ChatGPT was losing users.
In his evaluation of the graph, Oppenheimer said, “In addition, the initial 'excitement' for chat GPT by way of monthly users is fading (Figure 11). Of course, this doesn’t mean that growth rates within the industry won’t be strong, nevertheless it does suggest that the following wave of beneficiaries could come from the brand new services and products that could be created on top of those base models.”
Investors wondering whether it was time to take profits or postpone investments in OpenAI and related stocks were spooked after they read the report published within the Financial Times. NVIDIA, which is heavily depending on the long run of AI, suffered a 4% drop in shares on Friday, hitting its lowest level in weeks.
The problem, nonetheless, is that the graph Oppenheimer utilized in his report didn’t reflect reality. The drop in traffic to speak.openai.com was not because users were leaving ChatGPT. It was because OpenAI migrated the service to the brand new URL chatgpt.com.
Similarweb, which tracks website traffic, found that the trend in ChatGPT users continues, although there was a slight decline in ChatGPT traffic in July.
For the primary time since December 2023 ChatGPT showed a decline in monthly traffic in July 2024. As evidence of the numerous progress of the OpenAI Tool, traffic in July was still up 74% year-on-year.https://t.co/dL9iz4jLT6 pic.twitter.com/ODcXb1BF6w
— Similarweb (@Similarweb) 11 August 2024
Not knowing that OpenAI was using a brand new domain for ChatGPT, Oppenheimer assumed the great times may be over and the impact of his report on stock prices was obvious.
It is an example of how volatile the AI investor market is and the way vulnerable it’s to announcements, rumors and disinformation, even when on this case they were unintentional.
OpenAI is eyeing a $100 billion valuation and is in search of latest investors. The company expects revenue between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion this yr. When Strawberry launches in the autumn, it may lead to a continuation of the positive AI sentiment, which could mean excellent news for tech stocks like NVIDIA.
California's AI safety bill, SB 1047, is on Governor Newsom's desk, waiting for him to either sign it or veto it. Employees from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and others have spoken in favor of the bill. in an open letter published yesterday.
Newsom's decision could have a fair greater effect on tech firms' stock prices than a misinterpreted ChatGPT user chart.
