Elon Musk was interviewed by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), and said he expects we can have AI smarter than humans by the top of next yr.
NBIM manages the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest public financial fund. As investment dollars proceed to flow into AI, Tangen said the NBIM believes AI “has the potential to affect the financial return on our investments over time.”
Tangen interviewed Elon Musk on X Spaces to get his thoughts on where AI is headed. Musk said that AI is the fastest advancing technology he has ever seen.
Musk identified that a key driver of this rapid growth is the undeniable fact that “the variety of computers dedicated to AI is increasing… at the very least by an element of 10 yearly, if not every 6 to 9 months.”
Musk predicts that with AI computation increasing by an order of magnitude every nine months, coupled with almost each day software breakthroughs, “by the top of next yr we are going to likely have an AI that’s smarter than any single human.”
Additionally, Musk said, “In five years, the full amount of sentient computing power will likely exceed that of humans.”
AI obstacles
Musk said the most important obstacle to AI development last yr was the limited supply of AI chips. Even if the issue has not yet been solved, one other major factor hindering development is the limited energy supply on account of a scarcity of voltage converters.
Musk said that the provision of electricity is probably going the most important hurdle AI firms can have to cope with in the subsequent three years.
He is confident that these constraints might be overcome. Because the sphere of AI is evolving so quickly, Musk says the world's smartest persons are shifting their focus from areas like physics to working on exciting developments in AI.
xAI and Grok 2
When asked about xAI, Musk said that the most important challenge was the limited GPU availability to coach Grok 2.
He expects the 20,000 NVIDIA H100s they’re using will allow them to finish Grok 2 training in May. xAI expects the performance of Grok 2 to exceed that of GPT-4.
Looking slightly further into the longer term, Musk said, “The next step might be Grok 3, which I believe might be GPT-5 or higher…requiring 100,000 NVIDIA H100s for coherent training.”
In addition to chip availability, training data can be consumed quickly, and Musk says this can be something that should be addressed.
Synthetic data and real videos are the likely sources to fill the information gap. Tesla probably has the biggest real-world video collection from its autonomous vehicle program.
While Musk expects AGI, defined as AI that’s more intelligent than a single person, he says we’re still about five years away from AI defeating machine-assisted human collective considering in the subsequent two years.
Musk is well positioned to make such predictions. In a yr or two we are going to know whether he was overly optimistic or maybe even underestimated what AI will soon appear to be.
You can take heed to the interview below.
— Nicolai Tangen (@NicolaiTang1) April 8, 2024
— Nicolai Tangen (@NicolaiTang1) April 8, 2024
